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Author Topic: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17  (Read 1203 times)

Orange Emperoar

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The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« on: February 15, 2017, 02:04:20 PM »
This is probably one of the easiest runs home we have had for a few seasons

20. Perth, away 0 pts
The first of two aways to Perth. We may snag a draw, but our depth is getting thinner and they are getting a good run of form together.

21. Wello, home 3 pts

22. Newcy, away 3 pts
Because, history.

23. AU, away 3 pts
Can't see them winning much now. They haven't recruited and the young blokes haven't gelled into a team yet.

24. Tardistan, home 3 pts
After missing out on two wins against Shitney at home, the boys better show some fight against this bunch of

25. Gosford, home 3 pts

26. Perth, away 0 pts
Interestingly, both of our Perth aways are played immediately before our home games against Muangthong and Kashima Antlers. I would hope John would focus on the ACL in both cases and give a few youth a run in Perth.

27. Wello, home 3 pts

So 18 points from a possible 24.

In comparison, City have two games against Shitney, one away against Perth, and a trip to Wello.

This should see us finish comfortably in 4th, and we may get to third if Perth manage to let a draw or if other results go against Perth. Victory need to be abysmal for the rest of the season for us to have any chance at 2nd, but with their cheating of the cap, I can't see that happening.
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Chico Raul

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2017, 04:55:49 PM »
I am not as optimistic. We tend to draw a fair bit and really should be getting more out of games and our attack is not ruthless enough and we still have a tendency to do the unfathomable at times. 
With ACL coming up,  injuries, maybe a call up or two for the internationals,  I think we will end up around 40 or 41 points which is really the average of  a little over 1.5 points per game that we have been getting to date.
I agree on the Perth predictions especially without Hingert, and think some of those three pointers will turn out to be 1 or zero pointers.
If you were to say an average of 4 home wins and no points away that would be the 12 that gets us to 41. Most likely we will not win all 4 but may get a few points on the road to even it up.
Then again, like a lot of people I was not expecting a win in Shanghai. So hopefully I am being too pessimistic.(such is the lot of the football fan)

Septic Bladder

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2017, 06:52:05 PM »
So OE, you believe a team that could only manage 51% of points to date will achieve 75% in the remaining games.

With all the ACL commitments.




Orange Emperoar

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2017, 07:06:25 PM »
So OE, you believe a team that could only manage 51% of points to date will achieve 75% in the remaining games.

With all the ACL commitments.




Mainly due to the opposition we are facing. For example, we have no more City (5/9), Sydney (2/9), Wanderers (5/9), but coming up against the 3 bottom teams we've played 5 times and drawn once (13/15), and the Tards against who we have a good record at Suncorp and Newcy who we generally have no trouble beating at Broadmeadows.
As I said, the only challenging ACL issues are those following the Perth aways. Give the yoof a run and leave the key, older players at home to ensure the ACL home wins.
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Orange Emperoar

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2017, 10:28:39 PM »
4 points from the six I expected so far.

Now two weeks until our Adelaide match, with a quick trip to Kashima intervening. There will be no big travel issues this time because the stadium itself is under an hour from Narita airport. They should be on the 8pm out on Wednesday night after recovery and back in Brisbane Thursday morning, couple of days of training and then fly out to Adelaide Saturday night.

The Kashima game will be hard, but not impossible. A draw would be nice.
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FireBlades19

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2017, 08:01:11 AM »
4 points from the six I expected so far.

Now two weeks until our Adelaide match, with a quick trip to Kashima intervening. There will be no big travel issues this time because the stadium itself is under an hour from Narita airport. They should be on the 8pm out on Wednesday night after recovery and back in Brisbane Thursday morning, couple of days of training and then fly out to Adelaide Saturday night.

The Kashima game will be hard, but not impossible. A draw would be nice.

cant really complain with the acl draw we've had.... now to just keep these boys going on fumes...

Chico Raul

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2017, 12:04:33 PM »
4 points from the six I expected so far.

Now two weeks until our Adelaide match, with a quick trip to Kashima intervening. There will be no big travel issues this time because the stadium itself is under an hour from Narita airport. They should be on the 8pm out on Wednesday night after recovery and back in Brisbane Thursday morning, couple of days of training and then fly out to Adelaide Saturday night.

The Kashima game will be hard, but not impossible. A draw would be nice.

cant really complain with the acl draw we've had.... now to just keep these boys going on fumes...
Still getting the 1.5 points per game average. 33 from 22. Which sets us up for around 41. Realistically two wins, two draws, and a loss.
Looking at the actual fixtures for City and Perth, we have the better fixtures, but given our average, we have to improve to get third spot. 
The other two play Sydney, but once Sydney have the title, they may rest players.
Perth have Victory (A),  Sydney (H), Adelaide (A), Us (H), City (H) .   
City have Jets (H), WSW (A), Sydney (A),  Adelaide (H), and Perth (A)
We have Adelaide (A), Victory (H), Mariners (H), Perth (A), Phoenix (H).

mellod

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2017, 12:23:56 PM »
If results and calls keep going City's way (should have lost last night against 9th), they will probably take 3rd. They don't deserve a top 3 finish, however. Too many big heads and big egos running around on the field.

With Perth playing four games against the top four teams, I think they will struggle to pick up the points needed. They haven't exactly been consistent.

With our schedule, even after the rest, it is difficult to predict where we will end up. Certainly think we have more fight and, given the scheduling and injuries we have had, we are certainly the most deserving of 3rd spot.

FireBlades19

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2017, 04:10:49 PM »
4 points from the six I expected so far.

Now two weeks until our Adelaide match, with a quick trip to Kashima intervening. There will be no big travel issues this time because the stadium itself is under an hour from Narita airport. They should be on the 8pm out on Wednesday night after recovery and back in Brisbane Thursday morning, couple of days of training and then fly out to Adelaide Saturday night.

The Kashima game will be hard, but not impossible. A draw would be nice.

cant really complain with the acl draw we've had.... now to just keep these boys going on fumes...
Still getting the 1.5 points per game average. 33 from 22. Which sets us up for around 41. Realistically two wins, two draws, and a loss.
Looking at the actual fixtures for City and Perth, we have the better fixtures, but given our average, we have to improve to get third spot. 
The other two play Sydney, but once Sydney have the title, they may rest players.
Perth have Victory (A),  Sydney (H), Adelaide (A), Us (H), City (H) .   
City have Jets (H), WSW (A), Sydney (A),  Adelaide (H), and Perth (A)
We have Adelaide (A), Victory (H), Mariners (H), Perth (A), Phoenix (H).

Victards home and Perth away would be crucial i think as the others dont really have anything to fight for

Paolo

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2017, 04:45:47 PM »
According to CM , Tommy Oar will miss at least a month of the Run Home because of a hamstring tear...

Orange Emperoar

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2017, 09:02:27 PM »
I wasn't too concerned, but it does eat into our depth for ACL, which will have a kick on to the league. I wonder how many injury replacements we can get?
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Finsta

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2017, 11:48:17 AM »
I can't see any decent injury replacements being a chance of getting drafted in. More likely a youngster will get promoted.

Tough times for the club. I'm not expecting too many wins from here to finish off the season. Of course I'm hoping for great results but geez we've got our backs against the wall.
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Paolo

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2017, 01:18:55 PM »
OA I agree with your post, but I believe its a bit sad when we are not too worried when we loose our future AUS Marquee, and the problem is , I felt the same when Holman was not available....

With the squad we have we are doing well , I believe..

Orange Emperoar

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2017, 08:19:44 PM »
Third place is now looking extremely likely. City play Sydney away, Adelaide at home, and Perth away. I give them 3 points from that.
Our remaining games should yield 4 or 6 points.
Meanwhile, Perth have a good opportunity to snatch 3rd or 4th by winning their final three matches. Two wins by us keep us in 3rd.

Holman seems to be doing a bit more work lately. Papadoploulous has slotted in well, which from the look of Devere will mean a lot. Caletti looks like he may be a regular starter next year. Hingert and Brown appear to have regained a bit of form. I can't see us getting into the grand final, but we should be able to easily beat whoever comes at us in Suncorp.
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dobo

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2017, 09:46:56 AM »
the problem with holeman is that he clearly is not a 90 minute player, He looked absolutely cooked against Vic by 70 minutes, thats when his work rate drops and puts the other midfielders under heaps of pressure because they are now carrying a player (sometimes 2 as broich's work rate also drops off around the same point but at least he has the skill to hold up the ball when he gets it). As it has been the whole year we really struggle to create (and capitalise on) clear cut goal scoring opportunities, we are 11 goals behind where we were last season at the same point of the season. we seem to be able to get in behind defences quite often but no one knows what to do with it in and around the box, too many times on the weekend we cut it back when it should be low and hard across the face, we never have that second man run as holeman is not able to keep up with the pace of the game (or gets dragged out wide) and kristensen and callettie are much much deeper.

without being bale to score goals we dont stand a chance in the finals, we may get passed whoever comes to suncorp but not a chance with an away game.

Finsta

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2017, 02:10:54 PM »
We're an interesting opponent for the finals. JMac is basically carrying us scoring wise but in the finals do other teams just concentrate on shutting him down?

For one-off games "on paper" we do have a few scoring chances than just Maclaren. In Oar, Borrello, Broich, Holman, Kristensen & Arana we do have players capable of finding the back of the net. The question is whether we can put it together when it's required.

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Finsta

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2017, 02:41:25 PM »
Of our 6 losses this season, only 2 of them were more than by a single goal.

Round 2 vs Jets was a 4-0 spanking
Round 13 vs Sydney was a 2-0 loss.
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Orange Emperoar

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2017, 03:12:08 PM »
Arana wasn't even in Saturday's squad and Pepper was unused. Both of those were due to Devere's situation, I guess. I really don't mind if North continues to be on the bench for the rest of the season if it means Arana and Pepper don't get game time. Let them do their stuff in the ACL.

I agree with dobo's assessment of Holman and Broich. Daggers was a good replacement for Holman, but could come on at 65-75, and Broich should be kept home for our Perth clash so that he can play full matches against CCM and Wullungtun. Oar should be available for the Perth match according to the schedule given for his return.

I don't expect to be in the GF, but I hope we can get a home final and see off whoever turns up with a bit of style.
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dobo

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Re: The Run Home Rounds 20 to 27 2016-17
« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2017, 09:33:32 AM »
Arana wasn't even in Saturday's squad and Pepper was unused. Both of those were due to Devere's situation, I guess. I really don't mind if North continues to be on the bench for the rest of the season if it means Arana and Pepper don't get game time. Let them do their stuff in the ACL.

I agree with dobo's assessment of Holman and Broich. Daggers was a good replacement for Holman, but could come on at 65-75, and Broich should be kept home for our Perth clash so that he can play full matches against CCM and Wullungtun. Oar should be available for the Perth match according to the schedule given for his return.

I don't expect to be in the GF, but I hope we can get a home final and see off whoever turns up with a bit of style.

At the start of the season i was a big fan of Daggers having seen him a couple of times for the youth team. I really wondered why JA would bring in Katebian as i thought Daggers was a much better option (i still do think daggers is better than Katebian) but having seen Daggers and Katabian in the top team i dont think either are up to the standard yet. Neither look likely to come on and change a match (like Henrique did every time he came on). that is what we really are missing, an attacking bench player that can change a match. In years gone by we have had the likes of Henrique, solorzano, clut and before that Borrello, petratos, yeboah, fitzgerald and Halloran all of which could come off the bench and have a real imact on the game, this is particularly important in finals games and really worrying oppositions as they always know that when a sub is made things are going to get harder. Now we have brady, pepper and arana, none of which look like they can change a game or even make things more difficult for defenders particularly when you have players like Holeman, Broich, Oar and Borrello who tend to fade out of games in the last 20 minutes.

 

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